Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Golden Years Out-Performance YTD

You may have been surprised that the GWM Model Portfolios actually made money the last couple days while the market in general tanked. The majority of our retired investors have chosen the Golden Years Model Portfolio because they would rather not to have to worry about their investments in these turbulent times.

Below is a chart comparing the year-to-date performance of the Golden Years Model Portfolio to the S&P 500. Notice that yesterday, while the S&P lost over 2%, Golden Years gained about 1/2%.

For the year the S&P 500 Index is up less than 1% - Golden Years is up 2.70% YTD. We have accomplished this return with a mere fraction of the volatility of the market in general.

(Click on chart for easier viewing)

The GWM Market Direction Model (MDM) is now in cash. The current oversold condition of the market would suggest a bounce coming soon. We will not attempt to play that potential bounce at this time. The trading range lower-support-line has been breached to the downside on heavy volume. Moreover, the S&P is now below the 200 day moving average (DMA), a further negative. This may have invalidated the trading range. Because the MDM is in cash our Reversion-to-the-Mean strategy mentioned in The Gerritz Letter is tabled for the moment.

* All Model Portfolios have no exposure to equities at this time, with the exception of the Permanent Porfolio fund (PRPFX , a fund that holds gold, silver, treasuries and some growth stocks.

This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

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