Thursday, March 14, 2013

Market Snapshot 03 14 2013



Market Snapshot


Market in Confirmed Uptrend
Click on the link below
to click through a brief Powerpoint 
presentation explaining the
Market Snapshot.


Market Comment

While the market remains in a Confirmed Uptrend, the Market Snapshot is telling us that the market is approaching an Overbought level. The market can remain overbought for a period of time, but, at some point we will get a pull-back. 

We have seen a number of Nasdaq leading stocks get smacked around in the last couple weeks. According to William O'Neal, Investor's Business Daily founder, institutions will push up the Dow Jones Industrial Average while taking profits in leading high growth Nasdaq stocks. Tricky, Aye. Therefore, we pay attention to this type of divergence between markets; it can be a cautionary sign of looming market weakness to come.

At the moment correlations are very low. This means that it is a stock picker's market, my kind of market. We must bear in mind, however, that 3 out of 4 stocks follow the direction of the market. Odds are that even our best stocks would decline in a market correction. As we approach the old pre-market-crash highs, increased vigilance is called for.


This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Wednesday, March 13, 2013

2013 Individual Tax Rates


2013 Individual Tax Rates



Important Tax Law Highlights
Under the Act tax rates for individuals will generally remain at 2012 levels for single taxpayers under the income threshold of $400,000 annual income and less than $450,000 for married couples. Find your tax bracket (rate) in the table below.

2013 Individual Tax Rates from bankrate.com

Tax rate
Single filers
Married filing jointly or qualifying widow/widower
Married filing separately
Head of household
10%
Up to $8,925
Up to $17,850
Up to $8,925
Up to $12,750
15%
$8,926 - $36,250
$17,851 - $72,500
$8,926- $36,250
$12,751 - $48,600
25%
$36,251 - $87,850
$72,501 - $146,400
$36,251 - $73,200
$48,601 - $125,450
28%
$87,851 - $183,250
$146,401 - $223,050
$73,201 - $111,525
$125,451 - $203,150
33%
$183,251 - $398,350
$223,051 - $398,350
$111,526 - $199,175
$203,151 - $398,350
35%
$398,351 - $400,000
$398,351 - $450,000
$199,176 - $225,000
$398,351 - $425,000
39.6%
$400,001 or more
$450,001 or more
$225,001 or more
$425,001 or more


Capital Gains and Dividends
Under the Act a 20% rate applies to long term capital gains and qualified dividends for taxpayers who are taxed at the 39.6% rate. The 15% rate continues for taxpayers in the 25%, 28%, and 35% brackets. For taxpayers in the 10% and 15% brackets the rate remains 0%.

Payroll Tax
The payroll tax reduction of recent years has been allowed to expire. Those taxes will increase for all who have earned income and pay into the Social Security and Medicare systems.

Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT)
The Act permanently indexes the individual AMT exemption amount for inflation. For 2012 the exemption amounts are $78,750 for married taxpayers filing jointly and $50,600 for single filers.

Estate and Gift tax laws made permanent
The Act will permanently extend the $5,120,000 per person lifetime exemption. This lifetime exemption unifies the estate and gift taxes and will be indexed for inflation. The tax rate is increased from 35% to 40%.
The Takeaway Here: The sophisticated estate and business succession strategies historically available to high net worth taxpayers has been maintained.

IRA Rules
The Act extends the $100,000 charitable rollover provision for IRA's through 2013. In addition a taxpayer is permitted to treat a rollover made during January 2013 as a 2012 rollover.

Taxpayers who took an IRA distribution in December 2012 will be able to contribute any portion of that amount to a charity and count it as an eligible charitable rollover. It must meet all the requirements for an eligible charitable rollover.

Question of the Day: Should one contribute to a Roth or Traditional IRA?

Solution: Generally speaking a Traditional IRA if the deductions would generate significant 2012 tax savings. A Roth IRA may be more appropriate if a tax deduction would reap negligible tax savings in the year contributed.  

In addition the Act amends the provisions applicable to 401k, 403b, government 457b plans, and the Federal Thrift Savings Plan to permit, effective January 1, 2013. Participants in those plans may convert their existing pre-tax deferral accounts into Roth IRA's.

Education
Coverdell Education Savings Accounts will remain at $2,000.

Note: The above is a very brief overview of changes wrought by the "American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012".

Important: Be sure to work with an accountant who proactively seeks to lessen your tax burden. You need one who does more than simply inputs your data into a computer, then hands you the completed return and a bill that's probably too high for the minimal service rendered.

Seek advice from qualified professionals before proceeding with any strategies discussed in this letter. Each individual situation varies so the solutions vary as well.

Source; Stephen Hood Blog

Monday, March 11, 2013

Celgene (CELG) up 7 of Last 8 Days (Core Equities folio Holding)


Celgene (CELG) added 56 cents to 111.92, hitting a new closing high for the seventh time in the past eight sessions. Celgene shows no signs of slowing down.

The drug maker relies on the cancer drug Revlimid for more than half of its revenue, but trials of a pancreatic cancer treatment, Abraxane, have also been positive.

Above excerpt from IBD's Investors.com.



Market Direction Model
Market in Confirmed Uptrend


This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Saturday, March 9, 2013

GWM Core Equities Folio Y-T-D Performance Highlight

GWM Core Equities Folio Y-T-D Performance Highlight


Each GWM Model Portfolio is comprised of 6 individual sub-components that I refer to as folios. Today I am highlighting the year to date performance of the GWM Core Equities Folio





Here are the components of the GWM In-Betweener Model Portfolio


(click on the graph for easier viewing)

Diversification by both, Asset Type & Strategy


The Core Equities folio currently has 3 high conviction positions; CELG, GOOG and LNKD.
Celgene - Google and Linkedin.

I sold Micheal Kors (KORS) last week as it was beginning to display some signs of weakness due their recent secondary share offering. It is still on my watch list. It is a very fast growing company in the apparel industry.



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Friday, March 8, 2013

Everbank has been added to the GWM New America folio

EverBank Financial

Everbank has been added to the GWM New America folio.



EverBank Financial provides a range of consumer, business, and mortgage banking services through several subsidiaries and divisions. Its EverBank subsidiary offers community banking services from more than a dozen branches in metro areas of Florida. The bank's wholesale lending division provides loan products to mortgage brokers nationwide while its Everhome Mortgage subsidiary services a nearly $60 billion home loan portfolio. EverBank Direct provides online banking and brokerage. EverBank's Advisor Services arm allows financial planners and investment professionals to offer banking and mortgage services to their clients. EverBank Financial also has units devoted to wealth management and commercial finance.


(click on chart for easier viewing)

Everbank Financial
Chart by MarketSmith

Everbank purchased on a Buyable Gap Up


General Market Condition


Market in Confirmed Uptrend


This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Damn the Torpedoes - Full Speed Ahead

Investor's Business Daily confirms that Tuesday was a "FOLLOW-THROUGH-DAY" (FTD).

Investor's Business Daily's William O'Neal, says that after the market rallies off a bottom you need to look for a very strong up day (1.25% gain in one of the major market indexes on bigger volume) to confirm that the rally potentially has legs. This strong rally day should occur at least 4 days after the bottom was put in. He calls this a Follow Through Day. We had our FTD today.

My TradeStation FTD indicator picks this up.


NASDAQ COMPOSITE INDEX
FTD



"Not all Follow Through Days result in a successful rally, but, all successful rallies begin with a Follow Through Day."

The market brushed off the concerns of day and forged ahead to a new high today. I added to positions today and will continue to add positions as the market progresses. It is so much more comfortable investing  with the wind at your back.


PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI) - A GWM Flexible Income Folio holding

PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (PDI)


PDI is delivering very nice perform as of late. It occupies a
50% position in the GWM Flexible Income Folio.


Yield : 6.83%

PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund





Description

PIMCO Dynamic Income Fund (the Fund) is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. The Fund’s investment objective is to seek current income and capital appreciation as a secondary objective. The Fund normally invests in a portfolio of debt obligations and other income-producing securities of varying maturities and related derivative instruments. The Fund may invest without limit in securities of United States issuers and without limit in securities of foreign issuers, securities traded principally outside of the United States, and securities denominated in currencies other than the United States dollar. The Fund invests at least 25% of its total assets in privately-issued mortgage-related and asset-backed securities. Allianz Global Investors Fund Management LLC is the investment manager of the Fund.



General Market Condition

Market in Confirmed Uptrend

Awe, Much Better
Lots of Green


Market Direction Model

Market in Confirmed Uptrend



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

I added to our Google and LinkedIN positions in the Core Equity folio

Google (GOOG) and LinkedIN (LNKD) are high conviction positions in GWM client accounts. Both now represent 25% positions each in the Core Equity folio. The Core Equity folio is now 85% invested and has 4 positions:

Celgene (CELG) 25%
Google (GOOG) 25%
LinkedIN 25%
Micheal Kors (KORS) 10%






Google Quote






LinkedIN Quote
Adding on a dip.

https://www.google.com/finance?q=lnkd&ei=LA02UdDwM4elqgGO4AE










General Market Conditions

Bulls are pushing back

Investor's Business Daily
still has the market labeled as
"Market in Correction"

While we are not fully invested yet, our current folio holdings are out-performing the market quite handily.



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY) A GWM Flexible Income folio holding

SPDR S&P Dividend ETF   
The SPDR S&P Dividend ETF, symbol SDY, offers a very good yield plus appreciation potential. It is up 
6.43% YTD. We have a large SDY position in the GWM FLexible Income folio.

Fund Summary
 
The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of an index that tracks the performance of publicly traded issuers that have historically followed a policy of making dividend payments. The fund employs a sampling strategy in seeking to track the performance of the S&P High Yield Dividend Aristocrats Index. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of total assets in the securities comprising the index. The fund may invest in equity securities that are not included in the index, cash and cash equivalents or money market instruments. It is non-diversified.

Fund Overview


Friday, March 1, 2013

Celgene (CELG) Breaks Out to the Upside Once Again

After digesting the big gains made earlier in the year, Celegene, a NEW America folio position,  has broken out to the upside once again. This is one of my top high conviction picks. It currently represent 25% of the New America folio. As I write it is up another 1.47%.

I have been carefully and methodically adding high conviction positions to GWM Model Portfolios.



(click on chart for easier viewing)

Celgene Chart

The recent tight price pattern in Celgene
tells me that institutions are providing good support
for this stock.
The big boys seem to have a methodical  and continuing
buy program  in place. This is something I look for.




Even after a nice bounce the market remains vulnerable to political headline news, so caution is still the word of the day. At the moment Investor's Business Daily still has the market condition labeled as  "Market in Correction". A mostly defensive posture is still appropriate. It's not time to back up the truck yet.

Market Snapshot
02/28/2013

The Market Snapshot is depicting indecision on the part of investors.
There is a stalemate standoff between the Bull and Bears.
It still could go either way. 


This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Five Below ( FIVE) - A GWM New America folio holding

Five Below is a new GWM New America folio Position

Business Summary
 
Five Below, Inc. operates as a specialty value retailer offering merchandise for teen and pre-teen customers in the United States. The company’s stores offer approximately 4,000 stock-keeping units across various product categories, including style, room, sports, media, crafts, party, candy, and seasonal. As of October 27, 2012, it operated 243 stores in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, West Virginia, North Carolina, New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Ohio, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan under the name ‘Five Below’. The company was formerly known as Cheap Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to Five Below, Inc. in July 2002. Five Below, Inc. was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.