The Gerritz Letter

The February issue of  The Gerritz Letter has been published. It should be in your email inbox now. It can  be viewed on the GWM web-site as well.

Click the link below to download the pdf file version

https://www.swiftpage4.com/speasapage.aspx?X=2W0U6K8PEAM2UEWK00Y9WW


Stephen Gerritz

Daily Market Snapshot for 01 30 2012

The market is digesting some of it's
recent gains. A bit of a pullback
at this point would not be a bad thing.

After being down 130 points, the DOW fought it's way back to down just -.05%. The European debt crisis is once again gaining attention due to the upcoming important meeting in Brussels. This may pressure the market for another couple days.

Dow Jones Industrial Average
gave a neutral reading (yellow).
The only yellow in the
 current sea of green

The intermediate term trend remains up. The short term trend is displaying some negativity. I believe this will be the pause that refreshes.





(Click on the charts for easier viewing)


 

Equity Sector Rotation



Green represents the best performing sectors.
We avoid the red, unless bottom fishing.



Our big cap tech stocks held up very well today as the market sold off this morning. It is always a nice confirmation of a good buy decision when they behave so well. I'm talking about Apple and IBM, holdings in our Core Equity folio.

We have avoided the consumer staples since the first of the year. There comes a point when some of these oversold sectors offer some good bottom fishing opportunities. I did pick up some Phillip Morris today when it bounced off it's lower bollinger band on an analyst upgrade. It's currently yielding a very high 5.72%.

Phillip Morris

 We have a good bit of cash on hand. I feel comfortable buying the upcoming dip.

Market Direction Model Nuances

I have prepared a brief  slide presentation to help tie together the Market Direction Model and the Daily Market Snapshot. At a minimum, a cursery understanding of what message these two powerful visuals convey will benefit you greatly.

The MDM and Snapshot, and how they relate to the management your money, in sometimes volitile and  frightening times, will help bring clarity to the steps I take to both protect and grow your wealth.

You can click on the MDM image to the right to view this brief presentation now or visit the GWM web-site to view the slide show at your convenience.

(* Hint - If you adjust the screen size of the slides properly, all you will have to do is click the advance arrow a single time to proceed to each new slide.)

Daily Market Snapshot 01 27 2012

Daily Market Snapshot

The Market had a rather lackluster week all in all.

Market Direction Model

Short Term - The market may pull back or at least
pause to digest some of  the recent gains.

Intermediate Term - the market looks positve

Gold

Gold continues to shine!
I addeed to our gold position (GLD)

Daily Market Snapshot 01 25 2012

Daily Market Snapshot

Apple's stellar earnings and Ben Bernanke's comments
propel the market higher.

Gold

Gold shot up immediately on the Bernanke comments.

 

Apple's stellar quarterly earnings report and Bernanke's dovish comments added the needed gas in the tank to send gold and the markets higher. Bernanke seemed to open the door for the possibility of more quantitative easing (QE-3). Moreover, Helicopter Ben said the Fed would hold down interest rates through the end of 2014.

I  re-deployed a portion of available account cash prior to the Fed Chief's comments.

Today's gains moved us further into overbought territory. A pullback of more that a few days would have been helpful. That being said, we still need to have a stake in a market that is on the move.

 

Daily Market Snapshot 01 24 2012

The Market is loosing steam.

Apple's blowout earnings will propel the NASDAQ on Wednesday. I reduced all equity exposure yesterday, including Apple. Apple was declining until the big upside surprise. We still have a 10%  Apple position in the Core Equity folio.

Daily Market Snapshot 01 23 2012



In bullish cycles the market can remain
overbought for extended periods of time.


The far-right green bar in the Snapshot came down to about the 13% level. This tells us that last week's very overbought condition was somewhat relieved today.

Market Direction Model
All Green on 01 23 2012

The Market Direction Model remains positive.  I suspect any pullback would be bought with this kind of underlying market strength.

Equity Sector Rotation

Money continues to rotate out of the defensive sectors, consumer staple and utilities.
Energy stocks are coming back into vogue.

I did buy a position in XLE (Energy ETF) today in the GWM Sector Rotation folio.

Additionally, I took a full position in GLD (Gold bullion ETF) in the GWM Inflation Hedges folio.

Flexible Income Sector Rotation

Preferred Stocks and Convertible bonds remain the place to be.
Junk Bonds have been gaining strength.
I will be looking to take another inverse position
in US Treasuries if they continue to slide.






This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.