Thursday, April 11, 2013

Toyota - Anatomy of Trade

I took a position in Toyota Motor Company yesterday. As I write, Toyota is up over 3% today.

The following Toyota daily chart (very busy - I'm sorry)  illustrates how I choose my entry point when buying a stock.

Essentially, I want to buy a stock when it is breaking out of a properly formed basing pattern, in other words, a period of consolidation. I look for better than average volume on the breakout. This tells me that the institutions are bidding up the stock. I want to own a stock that has caught the fancy of the big boys. They are the only ones that have the true power to move a stock higher.

I have drawn boxes around consolidation periods. Notice the stairstep quality of the moves. My buy point (also called a pivot point) is clearly defined. I buy when the share price enters the Buy Zone, the blue shaded area. If the breakout fails, I sell it when the price enters the Sell Zone, the pink shaded area.


(click on chart for easier viewing)

Toyota Motor Company

Buy Trigger Analysis

GWM Model Holdings
04/11/2013
8:30 am

Toyota symbol = TM


This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure 





Wednesday, April 10, 2013

V-Shaped Market Recovery


Market Snapshot

Uptrend Resumes

GWM Market Direction Model
Buy Signals

Blue Impulse Indicator Fire

Chart View

Blue is Good - Red is Bad



Investor's Business Daily
F-T-D
is further confirmation
of our buy signal


Follow-Through-Day
on NASDAQ
04/10/2013

IBD Follow Through Day
Buy Signal Confirmation

Current Model Portfolio Holdings

Today's Performance

The market dips continue to be bought. Our defensive positions participated nicely in today's rally. 

I added to the Japan positions (DXJ and YCS) on the first buy signal a couple days ago and added some new positions this morning, i.e., Toyota. 

The market has been full of mixed messages lately. Utilities, a defensive sector, rallied to an all time high, while at the same time, aggressive growth stocks bolt higher on the same day.  This is odd behavior. A correction lies ahead somewhere, but just not today. 

Our high conviction positions continue to work well. I have given the high-conviction moniker yet another GWM Model Portfolio position, the ProShares UltraShort Yen ETF (YCS). The Japanese are on a crusade to inflate their economy by driving down the Yen, making their exports more competitive abroad. It is working;Toyota and Honda are outperforming their US competitors by a wide margin.

The market is very unpredictable. So, I will continue follow it's lead, rather than gazing into my crystal ball.







Friday, April 5, 2013

Deutsche Bank Upgrades Celgene (CELG) to Buy from Hold



Friday, April 5, 8:13 AM ET

Celgene (CELG) gets an upgrade from Deutsche Bank to Buy from Hold. The bank says survey data gathered from 100 dermatologists and rheumatologists suggests Apremilast is a "blockbuster." DB raises its price target from $105 to $143. Shares +1.4% premarket.

Celgene is one of our high conviction positions in the GWM Core Equities Folio. It may have trouble bucking the down market today, but should hold up relatively well in the face of a market downturn.


Stock Market Futures Sell Off After Jobs Report Disappoints





The market was expecting 200,000 new jobs. The report came in at only 88,000 new jobs. This is a real disappointment. Futures are off sharply.






The Employment Report is clearly pointing to a weaker economy.

The market's reaction is validating the GWM Market Direction Model sell signal we got earlier in the week. As a result I will further reduce equity exposure and consider taking strategic inverse positions on market bounces. A 5% to 10% correction is now much more likely.



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Thursday, April 4, 2013

DXJ Rebounding Nicely

GWM Holdings Mid Day Report 04/04/13 10:45 am



DXJ Chart


Major Shot Across the Bow



Market Snapshot

Green is Good and Red is Bad

Market Direction Model

Uptrend Under Pressure

GWM One Day Performance by Folio



MDM Buy/Sell Signal Chart

Red Line = Sell
Blue Line = Buy

The market sold off rather strongly on Wednesday. Is this the beginning of the much anticipated correction? It is too early to tell. Another big down day will seal the market's fate however.

Since mid-March we have seen a shift in investor behavior. The defensive sectors have supplanted the high growth momentum type stocks. 

Our Buy/Sell Signal Chart issued a sell signal. The last sell signal turned out to be a false alarm however. 
Still, the signal warrants respect. Consequently, I have reduced risk exposure in all model portfolios.



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.


The Gerritz Letter has been published


The Gerritz Letter has been published. Click the link below to access the April 1st newsletter.


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