Friday, November 29, 2013

Apple (AAPL) Mounting a Comeback

We added Apple (AAPL) to the Core Equities folio last week as it hit our buy point, Apple is currently trading around the $550 level. I think it could go to $600.











Apple

After a steep consolidation Apple looks ready to run again.




This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Wednesday, November 27, 2013

Happy Thanksgiving From Gerritz Wealth Management


GWM Core Equities Folio - Phillips 66 (PSX) Moving Higher

Phillips 66 is moving higher as it hits official buy point.











I bought PSX early, before the official buy point, because it's Relative Strength Line (RS) was moving up and buying volume was showing good accumulation (institutional buying). PSX is breaking out after an 8 month consolidation.

Phillips 66

Phillips 66 is an oil refiner.


The oil refiners prices generally move inversely to crude oil prices. So, falling oil prices are a plus for the refiners.


Core Equities Folio

Bank of America, Phillips 66, Wellpoint Inc., Raytheon Co., Gilead, Apple.

GWM Model Portfolios are 100% invested.



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Tuesday, November 26, 2013

The Growth Stock sector Mounting a Comeback

The Growth sector is just beginning to re-assert itself after a bout of profit taking. I am adding back-in an allocation to the growth stock sector today.







Growth vs Value 
Relative Strength Chart

Growth Stocks mounting a comeback.


GWM Major Markets Folio

Major Markets Folio
is now balanced between growth and value.

We took new positions in the IShares Small Cap ETF, IWM, and in the Spyder S&P 500 Pure Growth ETF, RPG.

Meanwhile the slow market melt-up continues and is now in over-bought territory. Too many days up without a meaningful pull-back. There is a great deal of rotation going on internally; so maybe we are just getting a rolling correction of sorts. A 3 to 5% general market pullback is coming though; I just don't know when. 


This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.




Saturday, November 23, 2013

ETFs or Exchange Traded Funds - What They Are and How I Use Them


ETFs are essentially investment vehicles that allow investors to purchase a basket of stocks that can target specific segments or sectors of the market, a very efficient and inexpensive ways gain exposure to the best performing sectors. Spyder Select S&P 500 ETFs are a great example.




(click on the charts for easier viewing)


Sector Select Spyder ETFs


GWM Model Portfolio currently hold  XLF, XLV and XLI.

Each of the market sectors represented by these ETFs come in and out of favor as time goes by. Utilities were top performers in early 2013, but faded badly in the second half of 2013. Financials and Healthcare are now leading the market.

Sector Rotation

GWM Model Portfolios are broken down into sub-components we call Folios. One of our Folios is called Sector Rotation.In the Sector Rotation Folio we want to invest in the leading sectors at the moment. We compare the relative performance of the sectors on a regular basis, systematically rotating into the best performing sectors.



S&P 500 Select Relative Strength Performance
10/01/2013 - 11/22/2013


The Healthcare ETF (XLV) is leading.
The Utility ETF is lagging.




Below is a Link for a short video explaining how ETFs work.

http://www.investopedia.com/video/play/understanding-etfs/



Definition of 'Exchange-Traded Fund - ETF'
A security that tracks an index, a commodity or a basket of assets like an index fund, but trades like a stock on an exchange. ETFs experience price changes throughout the day as they are bought and sold.


Investopedia explains 'Exchange-Traded Fund - ETF'
Because it trades like a stock, an ETF does not have its net asset value (NAV) calculated every day like a mutual fund does.

By owning an ETF, you get the diversification of an index fund as well as the ability to sell short, buy on margin and purchase as little as one share. Another advantage is that the expense ratios for most ETFs are lower than those of the average mutual fund. When buying and selling ETFs, you have to pay the same commission to your broker that you'd pay on any regular order.

One of the most widely known ETFs is called the Spider (SPDR), which tracks the S&P 500 index and trades under the symbol SPY.






This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Friday, November 22, 2013

Financials are Supporting Market's Move Higher

You always want to see the financials do well when in an uptrend; they help confirm the strength of the move and that is what is happening now.

We own a few financials in GWM Model Portfolios.








(click on the charts for easier viewing)



Spyders Select Financials ETF (XLF)






Bank of America























CME Group, Inc.


























This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Biotechs Breaking Out Again

Biotechnology stocks are  breaking out again and we owned some winners going into today.

Biotechs were showing signs that they were about to move. The RS (relative strength) Rating Line was rising and buying volume was picking up, so I bought the sector before the actual breakout. Consequently, we were well positioned to benefit from this breakout.



(click on the charts for easier viewing)


Biotech Index

The blue shaded box is the buy zone.



GWM Model Portfolios hold multiple positions that are biotech related.


Gilead (GILD)























Celegene (CELG)























IShare Biotech Index ETF (BBI)




























This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.





Thursday, November 14, 2013

Market Rotation to Value Stocks

While the market averages have held up very well, there has been a great deal of sector rotation going on under the hood.  In the last few weeks growth stocks have pulled back while value oriented stock have taken the lead.



Value vs. Growth Analysis chart

When the line in the upper panel is sloping upward, value is outperforming grwoth.


Value vs. Growth Comparison Chart

Value stocks now leading.

I have added value oriented positions to all GWM Model Portfolios, i.e., SDY and RPV.

SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)

Guggenheim S&P 500 Pure Value (RPV)



Uptrend Resumes after being under pressure



The buyer returned yesterday. I expect we will start seeing green on Market Direction Model.


I am moving to 100 % exposure to the market.