Monday, May 27, 2013

Japanese Stock Market Commentary - (Bloomberg Video)

Japan Stocks May Rise Another 20-30%

The Japanese market corrected more than 7% in just a couple days. We have exposure to Japan via the
Japan
Hedged Japan ETF, DXJ. DXJ is still one of our best performing position year to date. It is also one of our high conviction positions. My intent is to ride out the storm as of now.

All GWM Model Portfolios have a 5% position in DXJ. 

Click the link below to view a brief Bloomberg video discussing the outlook for the Japanese market.


http://www.gerritzwealthmanagement.com/japan-stocks-may-rise-another-20-30/

Thursday, May 23, 2013

Federal Reserve QE Comments Spark Market Sell-Off




In a recent blog post, I indicated the overbought condition of the market. I have also said that  markets can remain over-bought for a long time. A catalyst is needed to trigger a correction. We got that catalyst yesterday when the Federal Reserve suggested that they may taper off their bond buying program (Qualitative Easing) as early as next month. This was a real surprise for the market.


Market Snapshot Transition

The sell off is accelerating.

Chart View

After reaching new all time high on Wednesday
the market suffered a major reversal on the Fed comments


The bond market has been trending down since July of last year. Yesterday it actually dropped more than stocks.

20 Year + US Treasury Bond Chart




QE has been the impetus for the market rise in the face of a less than desirable global economic backdrop. Now that there is uncertainty about the future of QE it is prudent to raise a little cash now and let the market settle out for a while.


This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.




Friday, May 17, 2013

Market and GWM Model Portfolio Performance for 05/17/2013

Market and GWM Model Portfolio Performance for 05/17/2013

(click on the charts for easier viewing)

Positions as of 05/17/2013
Beginning of the Day



Market Snapshot

The Market has gotten quite extended now.

Chart View
Weekly Price Bars

The S&P 500 Index
has breached it's upper Bollinger Band.
This is a classic sign that the market is getting
ahead of itself.


Market Direction Model
The Market has had a very nice run.

I took profits in QIHU for reasons stated in the my last blog post. I also decided to ring the bell on some other GWM Model positions today. A number of attractive stocks that have been on my watch list are just now breaking out. I intend to buy them next week if the market remains amenable.

The Market Snapshot above is telling us that the market is now getting overbought. Remember, green is good; but, too much green is bad. The market is very strong and we do want to participate in the move, but we should not get complacent. 



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Took profits on Qihoo 360 (QIHU)

I rang the bell on QIHU ahead of Monday's earnings report. We gained better than 9% in a very short time.

Ian Woodward, HGSI Group Mentor, says high growth stocks, such as QIHU, go up like rockets, but can drop like rocks. The GWM New America Folio is all about high growth stocks. In the New America folio we invest in stocks with the potential to be very big winners, but positions have to be carefully managed. Many times this means not holding the stock through their earnings reports, too dangerous with an IPO (new issue) stock.

QIHU reports earnings this coming Monday. If the street like what it hears, the stock will shoot up; if not, it will drop like a rock. Since we don't know what earnings will be, I prefer to take profits now. QIHU is not one of our high conviction stocks yet.

If the street likes the report, I will liked buy the stock back, even if at a higher price.

An old Wall Street saying:

"Bulls make money, Bears make money, and Pigs get slaughtered."

Wednesday, May 15, 2013

Words of Wisdom


Famous Quote About Money and Investing From the late Sir John Templeton,
Famed Founder of Templeton Funds.

“Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism and die on euphoria. The time of maximum pessimism is the best time to buy, and the time of maximum optimism is the best time to sell.” – Sir John Templeton


Many investors are skeptical about the current rally in stocks. If there is truth in Sir John Templeton's words of wisdom, then these skeptics will be proven wrong once again as they are left behind as the train leaves the station.

My style of investment management seeks to align our accounts with the prevailing trend of the market. If the trend is down, I'm defensive; if the trend is up, I'm in it to win it. 

We have not had a 5 or more percent correction in the last 180 days. We are certainly due for a correction, but, when the music is playing we have to dance. For now, we are fully invested in all GWM Model Portfolios. I deal with it a day at a time.









GWM Core Equities Folio Update

GWM Core Equities Folio Update

The Core Equities Folio
has 4 positions and is fully invested.

NetFlix
Celegene
Google
PriceLine

NetFlix, Google and Priceline
are up nicely on the day as I write 
(5/15 @ 8:10 am)

NetFlix up over 4% on the day



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.


Friday, May 10, 2013

Qihoo 360 (QIHU) A New America Folio Holding


Qihoo 360 (QIHU) - 

Company Description:


Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd. offers Internet and mobile security products. Its core Internet and mobile security products include 360 Safe Guard and 360 Anti-virus 360 Mobile Safe, 360 Safe Browser, 360 Personal Start-up Page, 360 Application Store and 360 Safebox. The Company also provides advertising services by providing marketing opportunities on our websites and offers web games developed by third parties, provide Internet security services such as remote technical support to paying customers and provide other Internet value-added services. Qihoo 360 Technology Co Ltd. is headquartered in Santa Fe, New Mexico, USA.



Analyst Ratings

Rating: Strong Buy




This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

New America Folio type stocks have come back into favor

The Market is Looking Good

Sector Rotation

Investors have been rotating out of the Defensive Sectors
and into the more speculative Growth Sectors.

Out with the Old

The Lower Panel Relative Strength Line
compares the defensive sector index to the S&P 500 Index.
This was our clue to reduce holdings in the defensive sectors.
The shift out of Defensive Sectors began in April.

In with the New

Growth Stocks now Outperforming

This sector rotation is helping our New America Folio. The type of stocks I buy in the New America Folio are back in vogue. We have had numerous breakouts that are holding up very well. The New America Folio is fully invested once again and is now adding to the performance of all GWM Model Portfolios.

New America stocks can outperform the market in a big way when conditions are just right and conditions appear to be just right at the moment. I caught the breakouts in Nationstar Mortgage Holdings (NSM), The Medicine Company (MDCO), Qihoo 360 Technology Co. (QIHU) and more. I will outline some company profiles in upcoming blog posts.


This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.