Thursday, August 30, 2012

Market Comment 08 30 2012


Market Snapshot

The Bears are in control.


S&P 1500
Chart View

7 Days on the Downside


The Woody Indicator
VIX (Volatility Index)

Volatility Spiked



Market Direction Model

Downside Impulse Indicators Fired.


Upcoming Market Moving Events
 

Investors are nervous as they try to assess and anticipate the impact of the events of the next two weeks.  Most important will be the German court ruling on the legality of the fiscal treaty. The Euro Community is facing a dramatic test. Will the Euro survive the challenges?

I anticipated this market pull-back and have been reducing our risk exposure. September is historically the worst month of the year.

Once we can get through September I believe a nice year rally will ensue. For the moment a defensive posture is called for.




This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Thursday, August 23, 2012

Market Comment 08 23 2012




Market Snapshot
S&P 1500 

Getting close to a standoff between the bulls and the bears.


Chart View
Market Snapshot
S&P 1500

The market failed to hold above the resistance zone after an attempted upside breakout.


Market Direction Model

The market has enjoyed a nice low volatility drift higher for a number of weeks.


A market pullback at this point would not be at all surprising.  At this point,  I don't know if it will  be a mere pause or small dip.  I am definitely not expect any big decline though. In the FMOC minutes, Uncle Ben Bernanke said he has his finger on the QE trigger and will come to the rescue if conditions deteriorate further. This alone should provide some cover for investors.



This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Market Comment 08 13 2012




Market Snapshot

Slow grind higher on light volume.



Market Direction Model

The MDM is all green


Trendline Analysis
Chart View


We are now once again at the top of the upper trend channel. The market has
flattened out; so, a pullback or more sideways action
should be expected.


Equity Sector Rotation


Investors are rotating out of the defensive sectors and in to the
the cyclical sectors, i.e., energy and tech.


Flexible Income Analysis


Income oriented investment have suffered due to a quick spike higher in interest rates.

The sector rotation now going on is clearly demonstrated by the charts above. As the markets change our model portfolios change. 

The Flexible Income Folio had definitely presented us with some challenges last week. 

With the market now in the upper part of its trend channel, it is prudent to wait for a pullback before aggressively adding to equity position. Additionally, certain areas of the flexible income category simply need to be avoided right now.


Wednesday, August 1, 2012

The Gerritz Letter



The August 1st, 2012 issue of The Gerritz Letter has been published.

It should be delivered shortly to your email inbox.

It can also be viewed a the GWM Web-site.


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