Friday, August 8, 2014

Is a short term bottom in the Market at Hand?

The market behaved rather well today. All the recent rally attempts had  failed until today. The market went up and held its gains into the close. This is an encouraging sign. Below is a chart showing Dow Jones Industrial Average and its 200 Day Moving Average.  Notice how the 200 DMA acted as support during the last two declines.Will that be the case once again?

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

Orange Line = 200 Day Moving Average

The DJIA is now close to break even on the year.

Dow Jones Industrial Average Index

If the market activity remains positive on Monday, I will redeploy some cash into the market. 

The recent market decline has only been in the 4 - 5% range on the Dow and the S&P 500, The small caps stocks as well as many S&P sectors have been hit much much harder.

Given the number of disconcerting global events making headlines daily, I believe we should expect more market volatility. The upside will probably be capped for the next month or so. But, I think buying a little on the dips (at possible support levels) makes more sense than buying a breakout to new highs.