Wednesday, May 19, 2010

Market Comment 05 19 10

As of today the S&P 500 is up just 1.26% year to date. From the April 23, 2010 high of 1217.28 the index has fallen 8.39%. We are nearing the S&P 500 level of 1097, which would represent a full 10% bull market correction.

The market is now extremely oversold and due for a bounce. If we don't get that bounce soon we should expect further declines, giving us an indication that the market has completed a topping pattern.

We liquidated all equity positions on May 4th and have avoided this market volatility.

For the majority of accounts over $25,000 I bought a 20% position in a long-term US treasury ETF (symbol: TLT) on Monday. I sold it today (Wednesday) making a very quick profit of 1.25%. Often when fear drives stock prices quickly and dramatically lower, long term treasuries inversely take a sudden and sharp bounce up. I took advantage of this and was able to scalp a little extra return for our client accounts. This was a low risk strategy that paid off. This short term bounce in the long treasuries will be short lived if stocks start to rebound soon.

For the same accounts I also took a 10% position in a US dollar index ETF (UUP). If matters take a turn for the worst internationally the US dollar would continue to benefit as a safe haven.

A market correction in the magnatude of 10 to 12% would be healthy for the market at this juncture. This cleansing process would pave the way for a sustained  move to the upside. We will have to wait and see what cues the market gives us next.

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