Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Market Comment 01 20 10

The market sold off today, even in the face of good earnings reports from a number of companies. I believe that headwinds are developing, for gold and commodities in particular.

The culprit is the dollar. The chart pattern (below) is confirming the recent uptrend in the dollar. At this point I expect the dollar to continue its rise near term. The stock market may be able to buck the trend, but commodity related investments will suffer.

China suggested they will tighten up lending to help slow their economy down a little. The Fed is planning to curtail their purchase of mortgage securities. The specter of governments withdrawing liquidity may be enough to weigh on the markets in general.

The market had factored in a win for Brown (a republican) in the Massachusetts senatorial race, so we got a little "buy the rumor - sell the fact" today for healthcare stocks.

All said we may need to prepare ourselves for a long overdue correction. We will see how things develop tomorrow.

(Click on chart to enlarge it for easier viewing)


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