Tuesday, November 17, 2009

11 17 09 Market Comment

The stock market posted strong gains yesterday. High yield bonds were also up. Given the delay effect in high yield bond funds, they should also be up today regardless of the stock market direction.

The stock market is currently taking its lead from dollar weakness or dollar strength. If the dollar goes up the - market goes down and if the dollar goes down - the market goes up. This also is the case with commodities. The dollar has fallen so much lately that it is now time to watch for a dollar rebound. This rebound would be a negative for stocks and commodities. I will be taking profits in Brazilian and Australian ETFs if the dollar drops a bit more.

Conservative investors are primarily invested in low volatility bonds funds and need not be concerned about the day to day fluctuations of the stock market. All the bond funds we hold remain in an uptrend.

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