Gold is Up and the Stock Market is Under Pressure

World headlines concerning the Russian's involvement in Crimea and negative economic news out of China are being blamed for the stock market weakness.

It is always a guessing game as to a specific reason for stocks coming under pressure. I happen think the market is still consolidating last years gains, gains that were really fueled by excess liquidity in the market as a result of  unprecedented money printing by central banks all around the world.

The primary trend remains to the upside, however, we cannot ignore the downward pressure on stocks at the moment. Consequently, I will be reducing market exposure in the GWM Major Markets 2 Folio and GWM Sector Rotation Folio 2.

I will be adding to our gold related positions in both Sector Rotation folios because gold is now breaking out to the upside.

Year to Date Returns

The Market has recovered from it's January pull-back..  The S&P 500 Index is now up 0.96% Year-to-Date.

S&P 500 (Benchmark) Y-T-D:   +0.96%

GWM Golden Year: Y-T-D:       +1.67%

GWM In Betweener Y-T-D:      +1.73%

GWM Go Getter Y-T-D:           +1.85%

S&P 500 Index

S&P 500 up 0.96% Y-T-D

The market is having a little trouble breaking through its recent highs at this juncture.  We may chop around for a while as world events unfold in the Ukraine. For the moment, my optimism has been dampened a bit because of Putin's latest military moves.


Addendum: Performance broken down by Folios

GWM Folio Performance Y-T-D

This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

All 2013 Tax Docs Have Been Delivered

All 2013 tax docs have been delivered to you and/or your tax preparers. Tax Docs were delivered via Dropbox, email or regular mail as appropriate. Forms include 1099s, 1099Rs and Form 8949. Realized Gain/Loss reports have been also sent when requested.

If you are missing any docs please call or email me.

Stephen L Gerritz, CFP

PowerShares MENA Frontier Countris Prt (PMNA) is being closed out by PowerShares

PowerShares MENA Frontier Countris Prt (PMNA) is being closed out by PowerShares. I hate to see this great investment being  discontinued. You can see by the chart below that they are closing out at their all-time high.

PMNA represents 10% of the GWM Marjor Markets folios 1 and 2. Share are being liquidated at $13.61 per share and cash will be returned to accounts in a few days. Overall account valuations posted at Folio currently list PMNA at 0 value while the shares are being tendered. Cash proceeds will be deposited back to your accounts on Tuesday the 25th. At that time your accounts will show their true and correct overall valuations.

PowerShares MENA Frontier Countris Prt 

(PMNA)

PMNA being liquidated at all time high, $13.61 per share.

Invesco PowerShares: Leading the Intelligent ETF Revolution

Invesco PowerShares is leading the Intelligent ETF Revolution through its family of more than 120 domestic and international exchange-traded funds (ETFs). PowerShares ETFs seek to outperform traditional benchmark indexes while providing advisors and investors access to an innovative array of focused investment opportunities.

Follow-Through-Day Registered on the NASDAQ Index, Indicating a Probable End of the Correction

After a 7.46% decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the correction may have run it's course. When one of the major market indexes reveals evidence that large institutions are once again buying stocks in volume, odds favor a resumption of the uptrend.

Our Follow Through Day (F-T-D) indicator marks an initial rally day (the blue dot in the chart below) following a market low (the green dot). The market must hold above this rally day level going forward (the grey dots) for 4 to 10 days or more. We then look for a Follow-Through-Day, (2 magenta dots), as confirmation that the new rally may be sustainable. The F-T-D is  characterized as another big up day on greater volume than the previous day.

This is more info than you probably wanted to know. Suffice it to say, it is now safer to go back in the water. 

Next week I will be adding back positions in earnest. The most attractive investments will be those that held up best during the correction; The strongest candidates are revealed in market down-turns.

(Click on Chart for Easier Viewing)

Follow-Through-Day Indicator

Market in Confirmed Uptrend

* With corrections of 8% or less, the market normally recovers rather quickly.

* From a historical perspective, when markets correct more than 8%,  there is no telling how much further they could decline, i.e., July to October 2011. This is the precise reason that risk management is an important part of our portfolio management style.

This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

The Mena Frontier Countries Powershares ETF (PMNA) added to the GWM Major Markets Folio

I added a new position in the GWM Major Markets Folio:

The Mena Frontier Countries Powershares ETF (PMNA)

Many emerging markets have suffered steep declines, mainly due to the QE taper talk. The reduction of quantitative easing in the US is negatively affecting  currency valuations in many of the emerging market (EM) countries. On the other hand, frontier markets, a sub-sector of the EM category, have managed to remain rather unaffected by the turmoil in the broader emerging markets space.

The frontier markets include many Middle Eastern and Northern African countries. Because these frontier market countries have much smaller economies they peg their currencies to the US Dollar; this is a stabilizing factor. Further, their markets are in the early stages of economic development. Moreover, they have relatively lower valuations as well as higher income yield. 

The Mena Frontier Countries Powershares ETF (PMNA) has a very nice looking chart, with prices moving from lower left to upper right, I refer to these nice chart patterns as LLURs.

The Mena Frontier Countries Powershares ETF

 (PMNA)

This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Market in Correction

The S&P 500 is down 5.7 year to date. The Utilities Sector is the only sector showing positive returns.


Looks like we are now getting the correction I expected.

All GWM Model Portfolios continue to hold very high levels of cash.

(Click on Chart for Easier Viewing)


Sector Performance Y-T-D

Chart by Global Macro Monitor

This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.