Greek Parliment Passed Austerity Package

While the Greek citizens riot in the street, the parliment passes the austerity package. This is a positive because the IMF and the banking system will now backstop the Greeks so they will avert a default on their debt, which would have been catastrophic.

The markets are up slightly. I am a buyer of equities today.

Market Comment 06 28 11

We had a good day in the market today. We are still not out of the woods yet, but the markets are beginning to stabilize. We are once again approaching the S&P 500 resistance area at the 1300 level.

Notice on the chart below that the 200 Day Moving average is acting as support. We have bounced off it twice now. I will add more equity positions on dips.

(Click on chart for easier viewing)

The Greek Parliment votes on their austerity program late tomorrow. The market is pricing in a yes vote. If  they produce a no vote the market could sell off dramatically.

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Market Comment 06 24 2011

Another tough day in the market.

(Click on charts for easier viewing)

Then click on windows back buttom to return

Recent Sector Performance

Defensive sectors held up until the last couple days

Gold Smart-Stop hit

I liquidated 1/2 of our GLD position - may liquidate remainder if weakness persists

Consumer Staples and Healthcare liquidated as preemptive move based on unusual weakness

Added to Utilities  - Only S&P sector that is working

Flexible Income Folio performing well

The market is in turmoil and trying to navigate it is extremely difficult. The markets are very choppy, one day up big - the next day down big. Almost all sectors are trading as a block with little consideration to the fundimentals; we either have a "Risk On Day" or a "Risk Off Day".

Our Flexible Income folio's relative performance is helping offset some of the negative performance of our Equity foliios. Net - Net we are holding up very well.

I may begin to take some bond/fixed income positions in our Equity folios rather than have these folios merely sit in cash.

This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Whoa - What a Ride!

A major drop in oil prices was the catalyst for a major slide in the market averages Thursday morning. In an apparent move to quash oil prices the president ordered the strategic reserve to be opened. As perverse as it may seem, the stock market has been positively correlated to oil prices of late.

After dropping more than 240 points the market reversed course on news of an agreement being reached by Greece and the European banks. The Dow ended up losing 59.67 points on the day.

I was able to take a position in GDX (gold miners ETF) while the prices were down. I also picked up XLV (healthcare ETF) on the dip.

An observation of possible significance that I made was the fact that the defensive sectors did not hold up as well as would be expected.  This is reminiscent of the behavior they displayed in 2008 just prior to the general market's big slide.

Utilities, healthcare and consumer staples may be changing their character at the moment. After today's action I will definitely be making a mental note.

This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.

Sector Performance Analysis for 4 Week Period Ending 06 17 11

No place to hide. This is why we have carried a relatively high cash position in all GWM Model Portfolios lately.

The decline has been very orderly, perhaps too orderly. What we need is a good dose of fear to washout the sellers and set the stage for a reversal to the upside.

Lots of expected news next week that will have an affect on the markets. The Greek issue remain a key focus. I believe a short term resolution to the problem is at hand. If not lookout below. The big issue here is not Greece itself but the fact that the European banking system owns so much of their soverign debt. Add to this that Ireland, Portugal and Spain are right behind. A Greek dept default could create a domino effect that would have global ramifications.

Our early indicators are pointing to another bounce if not a short-term trend reversal. We are at very important support levels on the S&P 500. It could go either way. I will be watching closely.

Major Markets Weekend Update

Oil and commodities were down big last week while the US Dollar was slightly down. This is unusual because they generally are inversely correlated.

The stock market finally broke its 7 week loosing streak but did so with a very whimpy gain of just +.04%.

Gold is beginning to shine once again.

Last Weeks performance

S&P 500        +.04%

Silver              -.90%

Gold              +.48%

Oil                - 6.5%

US Dollar     +.22%

CRB Index  -3.56%    This is the commodities index

S&P 500 Touches and Bounces Off 200 DMA

It was a text-book perfect technical bounce; the market (S&P 500) tagged its 200 day moving average on Thursday and bounced perfectly.

Futures are pointing to a big up opening for Friday morning as well.  This word of caution however; the market rarely bottoms right at the 200 day moving average. The bottoming process is generally a messy process and rarely a neat and highly predictable one day event. We remain cautious and more inclined to sell into rallies rather than be buyers on bounces at this point.

(Click on chart for easier viewing)

 
 

This blog post does not constitute an offer of investment advice. This blog is only provided for educational purposes. Please read the Important Blog Disclosure posted in the right channel bar.