Market Comment 08 18 10

Even with the strong advance in the stock market the last few days the technical picture that has developed over the past couple of months has not changed. The tone of the market changes from positive to negative on a dime with no clear trends developing. The market remains in a trading range.


Our model portfolios currently have no exposure to the stock market. Since our low volatility bond/income fund portfolios continue perform well we can ignore the day-to-day volatility in the stocks.

Brace for Impact

Three words you never want to hear your pilot say - "Brace for Impact."

The Feds decision to give a slight nod of acknowledgement to the idea that the economic recovery is faltering took its toll on the stock market Wednesday. The market took a pretty good nose-dive. Near term, the environment for stocks has taken a turn for the worse. Expect more turbulence ahead.

Our model portfolios currently have no exposure to stocks. Furthermore, our low volatility bond / income funds holdings continue to perform well.

For now we can ignore the volatility of the stock market while protecting our current holdings with our stop loss strategy.

GWM Client Attributes

Most of our clients have completed or nearly completed the accumulation stage of their financial lives. For most of them management of risk is as important as pursuit of gain because they could not replace the capital they have accumulated with future earnings.


GWM Client Attributes:

 

Market Comment 08 04 10

The stock market is moving to the upside and our income / bond funds remain in a low-volatility, low-risk uptrend. Yesterday's modest pullback in stock prices was not significant. We continue to use stops to limit risk and will enjoy this uptrend as long as it lasts.

The Gerritz Letter

The August 1, 2010 issue of The Gerritz Letter has been published. It should be in your email inbox now. If you do not see it, check your junk or spam mail folder and mark it as not junk mail.


If you want to have a copy of The Gerritz Letter delivered to your email inbox monthly click on the link below. It is provided at no charge.

http://www.gerritz.com/newsletter_signup.html

Market Breakout or Fakeout

Since the middle of May the market has been in a sideways trading range with a downside bias. The bulls are now gaining an upper hand in the bear / bull battle.

The stock market is poised to rally for the short term. While short term the market has turned positive, the intermediate term is still bearish. A tradable rally may be at hand, but volatility is high and the sustainability of a potential market advance remains in question.

I am cautiously optimistic.

Market Comment 07 22 10

The market was up nearly 2% on Thursday. Breadth was 90% to the upside. Good earnings reports from a number of companies appeared to have been the catalyst.

The S&P 500 broke above it's trendline (T1) decisively. Furthermore, it closed above it's 50 day moving average after many failed attempts. In the daily chart we now have established a higher low, the first step of a potential market reversal to the upside.

Key resistance is at 1100 (R1). A break above resistance would force the bears to cover their short positions, and in the process their forced buying would propel the market higher. A further push above 1130 would give a very strong indication that the bear has been beaten back.

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