Thursday, February 25, 2010

Market Comment 02 25 10

Yesterday’s advance in the stock market just regained most of the previous day’s losses. This morning the market is off sharply again. All the major indexes are right in the middle of the range bounded by the January highs and the February lows.


We just have to wait and see if the market eventually breaks to the upside and resumes trending up, or if it breaks to the downside and completes a potential topping pattern that started in mid-January.

On average, the Market trends up about 50% of the time, trends down 25% of the time and goes sideways 25% of the time. The moving average trend tracking methods we use for high yield / income / bond funds are of little value to us in a trendless (sideways) market, therefore we switch to a stop-loss strategy involving share price support levels to protect our accounts.

(Click on chart to enlarge it for easier viewing)

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

Stocks Slump as Consumer Data Disappoints

A monthly poll showed consumers' confidence took a surprisingly sharp fall in February amid rising job worries. The decline ends three straight months of improvement and raises concerns about the economic recovery. The market reacted with the Dow down over 100 points.

Since we are invested primarily in very low volatility income funds at the moment we need not worry about these day to day swings in the stock market.

Sunday, February 21, 2010

New Position Added

I have added the following fund to client portfolios.  This is a newer fund so I shall watch it closely. It is designed to deliver a total retrun that is 3% over the current US Treasury bill rate. It is a short term position I intend to hold while the market is in a trading range (trendless).

Putnam Absolute Return 300 Y (PYTRX)












(The fund seeks to deliver an annualized gain of 300 basis points (or 3 percentage points) over the Merrill Lynch U.S. Treasury Bill Index.)

Thursday, February 18, 2010

In a suprise move the Federal Reserve raises the Discount Rate

After the market close on Thursday the Federal Reserve announced that it has raised its discount rate (the rate it charges banks for emergency loans) by a quarter percentage point to 0.75%. This is the very first step in the Fed’s inevitable move to normalizing monetary policy.


In reaction to this news the US dollar strengthened and the S&P 500 futures dipped by about 1%. So, we can expect a down open on the market Friday morning.

We have been at a crossroads in the market of late. The market’s reaction to this change in the Fed’s posture should shed light on the road ahead. At the moment we have a big cash position, so we can sit back and watch what unfolds with immunity.

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Market Comment 02 17 10

During the past week the stock market has staged a good rally off the recent lows. At this point, the rally has been sufficient to end the steep intermediate-term downtrend that started in mid-January, but not yet sufficient to clearly reconfirm the bull market that started last March. Until the market breaks through the January high risk will remain higher than normal.

On a short-term basis, conditions have improved for both stocks and junk bond funds. We continue to monitor the market, looking for further confirmation of a sustainable uptrend.

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Sunday Musings: Modern Finance Explained

I am not sure who wrote this piece; but I think it is spot on. If you have trouble understanding Fed Speak it is worth reading.

Economics 101

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit. She realizes that virtually all of her customers are unemployed alcoholics and, as such, can no longer afford to patronize her bar. To solve this problem, she comes up with new marketing plan that allows her customers to drink now, but pay later.

She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans). Word gets around about Heidi’s “drink now, pay later” marketing strategy and, as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi’s bar. Soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit.

By providing her customers’ freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when, at regular intervals, she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages. Consequently, Heidi’s gross sales volume increases massively.

A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes that these customer debts constitute valuable future assets and increases Heidi’s borrowing limit. He sees no reason for any undue concern, since he has the debts of the unemployed alcoholics as collateral.

At the bank’s corporate headquarters, expert traders transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then bundled and traded on international security markets. Naive investors don’t really understand that the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed alcoholics.

Nevertheless, the bond prices continuously climb, and the securities soon become the hottest-selling items for some of the nation’s leading brokerage houses.

One day, even though the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the original local bank decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi’s bar. He so informs Heidi.

Heidi then demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed alcoholics they cannot pay back their drinking debts. Since Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations she is forced into bankruptcy. The bar closes and the eleven employees lose their jobs.

Overnight, DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS drop in price by 90%. The collapsed bond asset value destroys the banks liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans, thus freezing credit and economic activity in the community.

The suppliers of Heidi’s bar had granted her generous payment extensions and had invested their firms’ pension funds in the various BOND securities. They find they are now faced with having to write off her bad debt and with losing over 90% of the presumed value of the bonds. Her wine supplier also claims bankruptcy, closing the doors on a family business that had endured for three generations, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 150 workers.

Fortunately though, the bank, the brokerage houses and their respective executives are saved and bailed out by a multi-billion dollar no-strings attached cash infusion from the Government. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by new taxes levied on employed, middle-class, non-drinkers.

Now, do you understand?

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Metropolitan West High Yield Fund (MWHYX) - SELL SIGNAL

I do not know if the current intermediate-term downtrend in stocks is about over or if it is just the initial decline in a much longer-term downtrend. Fortunately, we do not have to worry; we have been out of equity funds since January 22nd.

Junk bond funds tend to follow the general direction of the stock market, but with less volatility and often with a delay.  They also trend very well, both up and down. These are the qualities that make high yield funds very manageable. We want to be invested in these funds when they are in an intermediate uptrend and we want to exit them when an intermediate downtrend develops.


Our high yield / income fund moving average stop loss model delivered a sell signal for Metropolitan West High Yield fund (MWHYX) this morning. Consequently, in line with our strict discipline we have entered an order to liquidate MWHYX.

View the chart below for recent MWHYX performance figures.
 
(Click on chart to enlarge it for easier viewing)